The revision will do little to help the Congress party-led ruling alliance, which faces an uphill battle in elections due by May amid allegations of economic mismanagement, corruption scams and high inflation.
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The global brokerage firm in March had trimmed the growth forecast to 6 per cent and in June again it revised the growth estimate to 5.8 per cent.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
The report said in the recent months policy makers as well as the private sector have made some efforts to improve productivity.
Analysts and economists have hailed the fiscal projections in the interim Budget, saying the lower fiscal deficit forecast shows that the government, even in an election year, is serious about fiscal consolidation and that the numbers look achievable. According to Devendra Kumar Pant, the chief economist at India Ratings, the two broad themes of the interim Budget are fiscal consolidation and stepping up focus on agriculture/rural to course correct, to some extent, the differential benefits of the ongoing economic growth that's tilted in favour of upper-income bracket/urban households. The projected fiscal deficit numbers for FY24 and FY25 suggest that the government is serious about achieving the fiscal consolidation path of 4.5 per cent fiscal deficit by FY26, and given the nominal GDP growth assumption and revenue buoyancy, the target appears plausible, Pant said in a note.
After raising interest rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in 11 months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday unexpectedly kept benchmark rate unchanged as global banking woes added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Five out of six members of MPC voted to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with target while focusing on growth, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to take a pause after a rate hike seen in previous six consecutive policies.
In 1930, John Maynard Keynes predicted that by 2030 technology would be so advanced that three hours of work per day would suffice. Has AI brought about the transformation that Keynes predicted, asks Atanu Biswas.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
'If all goes well, we may well hit or even surpass the forecast growth rate.'
Digital literacy is emerging as the professional language of 2024. It is the ability to process complex data sets, deploy critical communication technologies appropriately and validate your importance at your workplace, explains Jagdeep Kochar, managing director, Baker & Taylor India.
'Investment creates capacity and reduces inflation. Income, employment, and savings rise.'
'With China falling out of favour, India is where investors see the demographic and digital dividend apart from the benefits of reforms playing out.' 'Your prime minister has also done a great job of sharing this story with the world.'
While Sunak has maintained a dignified silence over the recent crisis, his supporters have not lost any opportunity to point out how the former finance minister had got the economic forecasts right.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on Monday approved the national cricket team's tour of England from the end of this month. The clearance from Imran, also a former Pakistan captain, came when Pakistan Cricket Board chairman Ehsan Mani met him in Islamabad and updated him on the cricket matters.
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
The number of ultra-high net worth individuals (UHNWIs) in India is expected to rise 58.4 per cent in the next five years from 12,069 in 2022 to 19,119 in 2027, a report by property consultancy Knight Frank said on Wednesday. In its "The Wealth Report 2023", Knight Frank said that the number of Indian UHNWIs, with a net worth of $30 million or above, fell 7.5 per cent in 2022 due to economic slowdown, rate hikes, appreciation of the US dollar and geopolitical uncertainties. Globally, the number of UHNWIs fell 3.8 per cent in 2022 compared to 2021.
Some of Modi's biggest reforms have met with fierce political opposition.
The agency had earlier said that the economy would grow at the rate of 5.8 per cent. In a teleconference, S&P said the revision was occasioned because of the positive policy responses by the country and improving global conditions, despite the deficient rains and lurking swine flu.
Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said India and China will account for half of the global economic growth in 2023, as the multilateral agency retained its growth forecast for Asia's third-largest economy for 2023-24 (FY24). "India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined," the IMF said in its latest update to the biannual World Economic Outlook. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 (FY23) to 6.1 per cent in 2023 (FY24) before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25), the global lender said while citing "resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds".
These countries are feeling the heat from the US shale oil producers.
The brokerage believes the economic growth cycle is not fully priced in. It has revised upwards the earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Sensex.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
In its global economic forecast update for 2009, the World Bank projected a growth rate of 4 per cent for India during 2009-10, while the ADB, in its outlook, expects the economy to expand by 5 per cent. A separate outlook by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a club of developed countries, has forecast a 4.3 per cent growth rate for India. India had last grown below this level in 2002-03, when the economy expanded by 3.8 per cent.
The services sector growth in India rose to a 13-year high in September on sharp increase in new business amid strong demand conditions, and job numbers continued to increase as overall business mood improved, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 60.1 in August to 61 in September, signalling a sharp upturn in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its outlook for India's economic growth unchanged at 7 per cent for the current fiscal year while forecasting a weaker-than-previously expected pace for developing Asia. ADB's 7 per cent growth projection for fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023), unchanged from its September forecast, compares to 8.7 per cent GDP growth in 2021-22. For 2023-24, the GDP growth has been kept unchanged at 7.2 per cent.
India's unstable politics and slow pace of reforms add to the downside risks said the bank's note.
The first five months of 2023 have witnessed at least six major events/trends that augur badly for global economic and socio-political prospects, points out Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Those hardest hit by the second wave of the pandemic have been blue-collared workers, doctors and healthcare workers, law and order and municipal personnel, individuals eking out daily livelihood, and small businesses. And there should be more measures taken to alleviate their pain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. The report also indicated that the RBI's growth numbers might have to be revisited as the central bank's real GDP growth projection of 26.2 per cent given in the MPC's resolution of April 7 for the first quarter of 2021-22, were "made before the full fury of the resurgence." Nevertheless, the "resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1: 2021-22.
The IMF, in its semi-annual global economic forecast, released in Washington on Wednesday, says that China is expected to grow by more than 11 per cent in 2007, while India is expected to expand by nine per cent. It, however, says growth may moderate somewhat across emerging Asia in 2008, reflecting slower trade growth as well as some policy tightening in countries facing overheating pressures.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
India's economic growth could fall to 5.5 per cent this fiscal before seeing gradual recovery next year, a RBI-sponsored survey said.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday marginally lowered the country's GDP growth projection for the current fiscal at 6.8 per cent from its earlier estimate of 7 per cent. However, despite the downward revision in the economic growth projection, India will remain among the fastest growing major economies in the world, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das while announcing the latest bi-monthly monetary policy.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised India's economic growth estimate for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent pegged earlier, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum. It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year. In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
Manufacturing activities in India fell to a five-month low in September as new orders rose at a softer pace, which tempered production growth, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 57.5 in September, down from 58.6 in August -- the lowest in five months. The September PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 27th straight month.
Tokyo -- the songs Japan, Love In Tokyo and Sayonara from the 1966 Hindi film automatically pop up in the mind -- is buzzing and crowded like any other metropolis, discovers Deepa Gahlot. The modern apartment blocks are built cheek by jowl, so close together that one can open the window and borrow sugar from the neighbour in the next building. One of the fears of the Indian traveller is the unavailability of vegetarian food. Every city and town in Japan has an array of Indian restaurants that serve every variety of cuisine, right from Gujarati to Punjabi to Andhra and Kerala meals.
The GST revenues for August 2023 have shown a growth of 11 per cent year on year due to increased compliance and less evasion, Revenue secretary Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday. The collection from Goods and Services Tax (GST) was Rs 1,43,612 crore in August 2022. "Roughly numbers are in the range of 11 per cent year on year growth as in earlier months," Malhotra told reporters.
